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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Hidden Object. Download Download Caught in the wrong place at the wrong time - after visiting performance of the closed ballet. All our PC games were licensed for distribution as freeware by other game publishers or developed by internal game studio. No pirated software, 100% legal games. Download Black Swan Game Free ( 1015 MB ) To become a great zoologist, you have to master the ins and outs of Monkey Business.

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The WonderSwan, WonderSwan Color and SwanCrystal are the fifth-generation handheld game consoles produced by Bandai in 1999, 2000 and 2002, respectively. It is the brainchild of Game Boy/Color creator, Gunpei Yokoi. There were three versions eventually released: A black-and-white version, a color version, and a Crystal version with an improved screen.

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Emulators

Notes

WSCamp

A WonderSwan and WS Color emulator written by Toshi. This was the first WonderSwan emulator to feature sound as well as gamepad support, and it has a very high compatibility rate and excellent speed. It was the most accurate WonderSwan emulator at the time in the early 2000's, beating out Cygne and Oswan.

Cygne

The first WonderSwan emulator created on the Windows platform, written by DOX and released under the GNU General Public License. It had undergone massive improvements over its original DOS beta form in the early 2000's, including better timing and fixes to the SRAM. Cygne has a high compatibility rate, but lacks in speed and does not offer any sound support. Cygne supports both the original WonderSwan and the WonderSwan Color. However, it was abandoned in 2002.

Oswan

Oswan is a WonderSwan/WS Color emulator based on the Cygne source code and authored by David Raingeard. Improvements upon the original Cygne source include the additional of sound support and many speed improvements. Oswan also features the ability to apply several video filters as well as color schemes to add color to WonderSwan Classic titles. It has been abandoned as two variants of it were released in 2007 and 2010.

WonderScott

The second WonderSwan/WSC emulator, this WonderSwan emulator written in JavaScript was authored by Julien Frelat (Gollum) and released by the same team that made Boycott Advance. An online web format of WonderScott was also available at its official website, but is probably permanently inaccessible. It was somehow abandoned after its last version, v0.54b, was uploaded near the end of 2001 with poor compatibility.

Features & pages on recommended/available WonderSwan/WS Color emulators:

• BANDAI WONDERSWAN 101: A BEGINNER’S GUIDE (July 6th, 2007 by racketboy; updated June 19th, 2018. Old feature covering early WonderSwan emulation. Oswan and WSCamp were the recommended emulators according to the article. Both are too old by now and not recommended.)
• Wikibooks.org (PSP/Emulation List. 5 old emulators and ports for the PSP.)
• VTEmulation.net (Old list of 3 old, early 2000's recommended emulators. Site no longer maintained.)
• Old-Computers.com (List of 5 old, early 2000's emulators. For reference only.)
• Zophar's Domain (List of downloads for 5 old, early 2000's emulators.)

Debugging

Mednafen

This multi-system emulator is said to have great debugging and cheat engine features but, unfortunately, has a CRC check function similar to default MAME. A CRC check analyses a game ROM file for any change to its data and size, so a fan-translator or ROMhacker would have to edit filenames every time for every change, which is incredibly tedious. This is likely the reason why there have not been many hack and fan-translation patches being provided publicly for any game on several systems that are covered by Mednafen such as Wonderswan (this page's topic), Neo Geo and PC Engine/PCE CD. These systems don't tend to have many good alternative emulators, let alone ones with good quality debuggers.

MAME

This well-known emulator of thousands of systems also has a normal CRC check algorithm to insure that the ROM file(s) of any supported game or clone, depending on the database/ROMset for a MAME version, match the data integrity and size of the same game/variant in the records. However, this does make it rather prickly for an aspiring ROMhacker. The MAME developers partly wanted this to reduce the nasty incidences of some sellers pawning circuit boards that were actually stuffed with user-made ROMhacks. There are a few ways around that - note that MAME developers still support genuine fan-translators, even for arcade games.

1) Try using the HBMAME or MAMEUIFX frontend, which may support loading modified ROMs.

2) If you don't zip the set and instead make a folder with the zipname inside your rompath with properly-named loose files inside there, MAME will fuss up, but it will run the game even though the CRCs don't match.

3) With the new GEnie build system, it's pretty easy to build a one-game-off version of MAME that builds in seconds on pretty much any worthwhile PC.

make SUBTARGET=rom_name DRIVERS=src/mame/drivers/whatever.c REGENIE=1

Oswan

A very old, broken and dead emulator. But it has a (poorly working) debugger, so making a hack patch on a WS game can be a lot smoother process with this software's tool than Mednafen's.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by author and former options traderNassim Nicholas Taleb. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events — and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.

The book covers subjects relating to knowledge, aesthetics, as well as ways of life, and uses elements of fiction and anecdotes from the author's life to elaborate his theories. The book spent 36 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list.^[1]

The book is part of Taleb's five volume series, titled the Incerto^[2] including Fooled by Randomness (2001), The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018).

• 2Summary

Coping with Black Swan events[edit]

A central idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict Black Swan events, but to build robustness to negative events and an ability to exploit positive events. Taleb contends that banks and trading firms are vulnerable to hazardous Black Swan events and are exposed to losses beyond those predicted by their defective financial models.

The book asserts that a 'Black Swan' event depends on the observer, e.g., what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Hence the objective should be to 'avoid being the turkey', by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to 'turn the Black Swans white'.

Summary[edit]

Taleb refers to the book variously as an essay or a narrative with one single idea: 'our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations.'^[3]

The book's layout follows 'a simple logic',^[4] moving from literary subjects in the beginning to scientific and mathematical subjects in the later portions. Part One and the beginning of Part Two delve into psychology. Taleb addresses science and business in the latter half of Part Two and Part Three. Part Four contains advice on how to approach the world in the face of uncertainty and still enjoy life.

Taleb acknowledges a contradiction in the book. He uses an exact metaphor, the Black Swan idea to argue against the 'unknown, the abstract, and imprecise uncertain—white ravens, pink elephants, or evaporating denizens of a remote planet orbiting Tau Ceti.'

There is a contradiction; this book is a story, and I prefer to use stories and vignettes to illustrate our gullibility about stories and our preference for the dangerous compression of narratives.. You need a story to displace a story. Metaphors and stories are far more potent (alas) than ideas; they are also easier to remember and more fun to read.^[5]

Part one: Umberto Eco's anti-library, or how we seek validation[edit]

In the first chapter, the Black Swan theory is first discussed in relation to Taleb's coming of age in the Levant. The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis. He describes history as opaque, essentially a black box of cause and effect. One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect. Taleb argues this is due to The Triplet of Opacity.^[6]

The second chapter discusses a neuroscientist named Yevgenia Nikolayevna Krasnova and her book A Story of Recursion. She published her book on the web and was discovered by a small publishing company; they published her unedited work and the book became an international bestseller. The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Yevgenia became famous. This incident is described as a Black Swan event.

The book goes on to admit that the so-called author is a work of fiction. Yevgenia rejects the distinction between fiction and nonfiction. She also hates the very idea of forcing things into well defined 'categories', holding that the world generally is complex and not easy to define. Though female, the character is based, in part, autobiographically on the author (according to Taleb), who has many of the same traits.

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The third chapter introduces the concepts of Extremistan and Mediocristan. He uses them as guides to define how predictable the environment one's studying is. Mediocristan environments safely can use Gaussian distribution. In Extremistan environments, a Gaussian distribution should be used at one's own peril.

Chapter four brings together the topics discussed earlier, into a narrative about a turkey. Taleb uses it to illustrate the philosophical problem of induction and how past performance is no indicator of future performance. He then takes the reader into the history of skepticism.

In chapter nine, Taleb outlines the multiple topics he previously has described and connects them as a single basic idea.

In chapter thirteen, the book discusses what can be done regarding epistemic arrogance. He recommends avoiding unnecessary dependence on large-scale harmful predictions, while being less cautious with smaller matters, such as going to a picnic. He makes a distinction between the American cultural perception of failure versus European and Asian stigma and embarrassment regarding failure: the latter is more tolerable for people taking small risks. He also describes the 'barbell strategy' for investment he used as a trader, which consists in avoiding medium risk investments and putting 85–90% of money in the safest instruments available and the remaining 10–15% on extremely speculative bets.

Black Swan Game Part 8

Argument[edit]

The term black swan was a Latin expression: its oldest reference is in the poet Juvenal's expression that 'a good person is as rare as a black swan' ('rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno', 6.165).^[7] It was a common expression in 16th century London, as a statement that describes impossibility, deriving from the old world presumption that 'all swans must be white', because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.^[8] Thus, the black swan is an oft cited reference in philosophical discussions of the improbable. Aristotle's 'Prior Analytics' is the most likely original reference that makes use of example syllogisms involving the predicates 'white', 'black', and 'swan.' More specifically, Aristotle uses the white swan as an example of necessary relations and the black swan as improbable. This example may be used to demonstrate either deductive or inductive reasoning; however, neither form of reasoning is infallible, since in inductive reasoning, the premises of an argument may support a conclusion, but do not ensure it, and similarly, in deductive reasoning, an argument is dependent on the truth of its premises. That is, a false premise may lead to a false result and inconclusive premises also will yield an inconclusive conclusion. The limits of the argument behind 'all swans are white' is exposed—it merely is based on the limits of experience (e.g., that every swan one has seen, heard, or read about is white). The point of this metaphor is that all known swans were white until the discovery of black swans in Australia. Hume's attack against induction and causation is based primarily on the limits of everyday experience and so too, the limitations of scientific knowledge.

Reception[edit]

Mathematics professor David Aldous argued that 'Taleb is sensible (going on prescient) in his discussion of financial markets and in some of his general philosophical thought, but tends toward irrelevance or ridiculous exaggeration otherwise.'^[9]Gregg Easterbrook wrote a critical review of The Black Swan in the New York Times^[10] to which Taleb replied with a list of logical errors, blaming Easterbrook for not having read the book.^[11]Giles Foden, writing for The Guardian in 2007, described the book as insightful, but facetiously written, saying that Nassim's 'dumbed-down' style was a central problem, especially in comparison to Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.^[12] Watch one piece dubbed english.

The Nobel Prize–winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman wrote 'The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works' and explains the influence in his 2011 book Thinking, Fast and Slow.

Since being published in 2007, as of February 2011 it has sold close to three million copies. It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times Bestseller list;^[13] 17 as hardcover and 19 weeks as paperback.^[14] It was published in 32 languages.^[15]

See also[edit]

• Benoit Mandelbrot^[16][17]

Notes[edit]

1. ^'Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence'. Bloomberg. March 27, 2008.
2. ^Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (November 15, 2016). 'Incerto: Fooled by Randomness The Black Swan The Bed of Procrustes Antifragile'. Random House Trade Paperbacks. Retrieved November 5, 2017 – via Amazon.
3. ^Taleb 2007 p.xix.
4. ^Taleb 2007 PROLOGUE p.xxviii.
5. ^Taleb 2007 PROLOGUE p.xxvii, Taleb call this human tendency the narrative fallacy: we seem to enjoy stories, and we seem to want to remember stories for their own sake.
6. ^Taleb 2007 PROLOGUE p8.
7. ^Puhvel, J. (1984). 'The Origin of Etruscan tusna ('Swan')'. The American Journal of Philology. 105 (2): 209. doi:10.2307/294875. JSTOR294875.
8. ^Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 'Opacity: What We Do Not See'. Fooledbyrandomness.com. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
9. ^David Aldous, A critical review of Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, A.M.S. Notices, March 2011, pp. 427–413
10. ^Easterbrook, Gregg (April 22, 2007). 'Possibly Maybe'. The New York Times.
11. ^Nassim Nicholas Taleb. 'Abbreviated List of Factual and Logical Mistakes in Gregg Easterbrook's Review of The Black Swan in The New York Times'(PDF). Fooledbyrandomness.com. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
12. ^Foden, Giles (May 12, 2007). 'Stuck in Mediocristan'. The Guardian. Retrieved January 7, 2015.
13. ^'Charlie Rose Talks to Nassim Taleb'. Bloomberg.com. February 24, 2011. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
14. ^Schuessler, Jennifer. 'Hardcover'. The New York Times.
15. ^Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (May 11, 2010). 'The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: 'On Robustness and Fragility''. Random House Trade Paperbacks. Retrieved November 5, 2017 – via Amazon.
16. ^The Black Swan was dedicated to Mandelbrot.
17. ^Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (November 1, 2010). 'Benoît Mandelbrot'. Time. Retrieved November 5, 2017.

References[edit]

• Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2007), The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House, ISBN978-1400063512

External links[edit]

• Slideshow lecture explaining the Ludic Fallacy with clarity By Peter Taylor of Oxford University.
• Nassim Taleb podcast interview on The Black Swan.
• Will Davies (2007) 'All in a Flap: Beware of Unknown Unknowns', review of The Black Swan in the Oxonian Review.